World Cup 2026 Group Stage Predictions: Groups E–H Breakdown

Last Updated on 9 June 2026

Groups A through D gave us a host nation battle, a Scottish survival mission, and a remarkably open American group. Now the tournament gets even more interesting.

Groups E through H feature two genuine tournament favourites, the most talked-about striker partnership in European football, a Belgium side asking whether experience is enough without a golden generation, and Spain who simply cannot be stopped on paper.

After the first four groups were predicted, here is how we see it all playing out at the World Cup 2026.

Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curacao

Germany’s chances of qualifying for the last 32 rate at 96.1% according to Opta’s supercomputer, who also gives them a 59.9% probability of topping Group E. This is not a group that punishes the favourites.

Germany finish first. The creative engine is Florian Wirtz, now at Liverpool, who arrives at this tournament in outstanding club form. Alongside him, Jamal Musiala at Bayern Munich provides elite dribbling in tight spaces.

The Wirtz-Musiala combination is widely described as the most exciting creative partnership at the 2026 tournament. Germany open against Curacao in Houston on June 14, then face Ivory Coast and close against Ecuador. Expect Germany to win all three, or at least not lose any.

Ecuador finish second. They are this World Cup’s true dark horses. Chelsea’s midfield maestro Moises Caicedo is the standout player in Ecuador’s squad: a 60-cap international known for his tough tackling, relentless energy and press-resistant distribution.

Ecuador are compact, difficult to break down, and experienced at major tournaments. They should comfortably cruise to second, maybe even first if they get a result against Nagelsmann’s Germany.

Ivory Coast are the closest challengers. They have the best rising stars who can cause problems on the transition. Not to mention a very solid defensive outlet, too. Our call is that Ivory Coast edge through after a big win over Curacao and are capable of an upset, too.

Curacao make history just by being here. The smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup, Curacao enter as historical outsiders with lots of switched nationalities. These debutants will be happy just to be a part of it, and that’s history, right there. But, they do not advance.

Predicted standings: Germany → Ecuador → Ivory Coast → Curacao

Third-place verdict: Ivory Coast finish third with a win over Curacao and points to show from the Ecuador game. However, three points should be be enough to crack the top eight third-place teams across the tournament.

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

This is the group nobody can confidently predict beyond first place. Netherlands are Group F favourites, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 48.2% chance of finishing first. Even if they fail to do that, their 88.2% chance of qualifying suggests they will advance.

Netherlands finish first. By winning 54.5% of their matches at the World Cup, only Brazil and Germany have a stronger win rate. Not since 1994 have the Netherlands lost a group-stage match. Ronald Koeman has a settled, experienced squad.

Japan finish second, narrowly. Japan beat Scotland 1-0, and then beat England at Wembley becoming the first Asian nation ever to beat them. Their defensive organisation is elite and their ability to execute game plans against top dogs is proven. Nobody should take them lightly.

Sweden are the danger. On paper, this is a coin flip between Japan and Sweden for second place. Gyokeres and Isak in front give Sweden a striking partnership that has contributed double-digit combined goals when playing together across all competitions.

However, both strikers arrive carrying question marks. Isak has struggled for form and fitness in his debut season at Liverpool, while Gyokeres’ maiden campaign at Arsenal can hardly be described as anything more than decent.

Tunisia finish fourth. They are resilient and difficult to beat. Their organisation is genuine. However, the quality gap between them and Japan, Sweden, and particularly the Netherlands is too significant across three games.

Predicted standings: Netherlands → Japan → Sweden → Tunisia

Third-place verdict: Sweden with three points are a credible third-place qualifier. Graham Potter’s side have the attacking firepower to pad their goal difference against Tunisia. A draw against either Japan or the Netherlands keeps them very much in the mix.

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

Belgium are favourites to progress from Group G at 89.6%, qualifying as group winners in more than half of pre-tournament simulations at 51.9%. The golden generation era is over. What remains, though, is still formidable enough to navigate this group.

Belgium finish first. Thibaut Courtois is still one of the world’s best goalkeepers. Kevin De Bruyne, in his final WC finals, even at 34 and managing a Napoli season disrupted by injury, brings a level of creativity that none of the other three sides can match. Belgium win this one.

Egypt finish second. Mohamed Salah arrives at this tournament with something to prove. He will see this as a chance to show the world he is still one of the game’s greats ahead of a summer move away from Liverpool.

Egypt drew 0-0 with World Cup favourites Spain and beat Saudi Arabia 4-0 in their March friendlies. Combine Salah’s motivation with Omar Marmoush’s explosive form, and Egypt have a formidable attacking duo. But, fight for secon will be close. Iran-Egypt decides second-place.

Iran are genuinely dangerous. There is little to split Egypt and Iran, both have around a two-in-three chance of reaching the knockout stage per Opta. Iran’s preparations could hardly have been worse, with their training base moved to Mexico from the US.

The political backdrop creates distraction that no other team at this tournament faces. Their talent is real. Their circumstances are uniquely difficult.

New Zealand finish bottom. New Zealand’s OFC qualifying path is the softest route to any World Cup in 2026. Chris Wood leads the line gamely, but the gulf between Oceanian qualifying and Belgium or Egypt is enormous. They do not advance.

Predicted standings: Belgium → Egypt → Iran → New Zealand

Third-place verdict: Iran finishing third with four points, a win over New Zealand and a draw against Egypt or Belgium, is entirely plausible. Four points nearly always advances. This is one of the stronger third-place cases in the draw.

Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde

Group H has the cleanest hierarchy of any group in the entire tournament. Spain have a 98.5% chance of reaching the knockout stages: the highest of any side at the tournament.

The reigning Euro 2024 champions arrive as the number two-ranked team in FIFA’s standings, with a generation of players who have already won at the senior level and squad depth that none of the other three sides can match.

Spain finish first. Lamine Yamal at 18 is already one of the most dangerous wide players in world football. Pedri pulls the strings in midfield. Spain went unbeaten throughout UEFA qualifying, winning five and drawing one, outscoring opponents 21-2 in six matches. Easy W.

Uruguay finish second. They very much resemble a typical Bielsa side, recording 147 high turnovers in CONMEBOL qualifying, at least 26 more than any other nation. Darwin Nunez brings unpredictable energy. Valverde controls the midfield tempo. They qualify.

Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde battle for third. Saudi Arabia are capable of upsetting anyone on a given day: they beat Argentina in 2022 and the memory of that result never quite fades. They have made it beyond the first round in 39.9% of Opta’s simulations.

Cape Verde, making their first-ever World Cup appearance, beat Finland on penalties and then thoroughly beat Serbia 3-0 in their preparatory friendlies. They are no pushovers for Saudi Arabia. Tough group, regardless.

Our call: Saudi Arabia third. They have more World Cup experience, stronger individual quality, and a track record of raising their game against weaker opponents. Cape Verde are an incredible story but Saudi Arabia’s ceiling in this group is higher.

Predicted standings: Spain → Uruguay → Saudi Arabia → Cape Verde

Third-place verdict: Saudi Arabia in third with three or four points is a very realistic scenario. But given how tough all four teams are, they could genuinely miss out altogether despite being a strong team.