Premier League’s race for 2026/27 Champions League gains traction. Who will make it?

Premier League rarely does simple, but this season’s race for the Champions League is something special. With multiple clubs in the mix and UEFA’s evolving rules adding layers of complexity, battle for 2026/27 qualification is turning into a perfect storm.

The usual top-four equation no longer applies. Premier League is on track to secure an extra European Performance Spot, meaning fifth place could be enough, and in a chaotic chain of results involving European winners, even seventh isn’t completely off the table.

So while Arsenal and Manchester City fight it out at the top, the real drama is unfolding just below them, where every point, every fixture, and every European result could tilt the balance.

Manchester United – 3rd with 55 points

Manchester United have put themselves in pole position for a Champions League return, but it’s far from done.

• Context: United have been the most stable of the chasing pack, but not untouchable. Their margin is slim, and the pressure is mounting.
• Remaining Fixtures: Chelsea (A), Brentford (H), Liverpool (H), Arsenal (H)
• What they need: Around 12-15 points from their final seven games should be enough but with that fixture list, nothing is guaranteed.

Michael Carrick can all but secure a long-term position at Old Trafford if he keeps United in third.

Aston Villa – 4th with 54 points

Aston Villa are walking a tightrope, but they’ve built themselves a cushion few others have.

• Context: Unai Emery has Villa operating at an elite level, but their schedule is demanding, and their focus is split.
• Remaining Fixtures: Nottingham Forest (A), Sunderland (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (H)
• What they need: Four wins from seven should secure top four but even if they fall short, winning the Europa League guarantees qualification.

That dual route makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the race.

Liverpool – 5th with 49 points

Few teams hold as much influence over this race as Liverpool.

• Context: Domestically inconsistent, but still alive in the Champions League, where their success could open extra qualification spots.
• Remaining Fixtures: Everton (A), Manchester United (A), Chelsea (H), Aston Villa (A)
• What they need: To qualify via the league, they likely need to overtake Villa or United. But if they win the Champions League, their league position becomes irrelevant, and could benefit others.

They’re not just chasing a spot, they could redefine the race entirely.

Chelsea – 6th with 48 points

After Villa’s recent win, Chelsea are officially the most out-of-form team in the race, and the hardest part is ahead.

• Context: No European distractions mean fresher legs but also no safety net. It’s top five or nothing.
• Remaining Fixtures: Manchester City (H), Manchester United (H), Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H)
• What they need: At least two wins from their “Big Six” clashes. Without that, the gap could quickly become insurmountable.

Liam Rosenior’s job might be safe but Chelsea’s place in next year’s Champions League isn’t.

The clubs with an outside chance:

Brentford – 7th with 46 points

As it stands, Brentford are only three points off a Champions League spot. And, they might not need to close that gap if Premier League gain two more spots for Europe’s premier competition.

In any case, Brentford would require a string of unbelievable results to qualify for Champions League. They still have to play Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United away from home.

Everton – 8th with 46 points

In a similar bind to Brentford, Everton have done extraordinarily well under David Moyes to be in contention for a European spot. Unlike the Bees, though, they actually don’t have a terrible set of fixtures.

Champions League qualification would still require an insane finish to the season but there’s a spicy Merseyside derby still left to make things even more interesting.