World Cup 2026 Group Stage Predictions: Groups I–L Breakdown

The final four groups close out the 2026 World Cup group-stage picture. Groups I through L are where the biggest individual storylines collide.

Erling Haaland finally gets his World Cup. Lionel Messi defends his title at 38. Cristiano Ronaldo makes what is almost certainly his last appearance on this stage. And England arrive with arguably their deepest squad in a generation.

Having completed the first four groups, our predictions for Groups E to H are out, too. Here is how we call the last four groups of the World Cup.

Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq

Group I is one of the tournament’s must-watch sections: France come in as one of the clear favourites to win it all. Norway are back on the World Cup stage for the first time in 28 years powered by the most lethal striker in the game.

While, Iraq return for the first time since 1986, bringing the emotion of a nation that waited four decades for this moment.

France to finish first. Didier Deschamps bows out after this tournament, and he will not leave without a fight. Some players from France’s 2018 winning squad are included in the 2026 group including Kylian Mbappe, who leads as captain.

Norway finish second, narrowly. Haaland scored a staggering 16 goals in eight qualifying fixtures and arrives as the most lethal striker at the tournament. Martin Odegaard pulls the strings in midfield. Together, along with other exciting talent, Norway are the team to watch.

Senegal are the biggest threat to second place. Senegal arrive carrying the fallout from one of the most controversial moments in African football after having their AFCON title stripped and awarded to Morocco. That injustice gives Pape Thiaw’s squad something to prove.

Koulibaly anchors the defence, while Mane and Sarr provide serious attacking threat. Realistically, Senegal should target second place behind France. Both Norway and Senegal feature on our upset prediction watch-list.

Iraq finish bottom and celebrate every moment. Their return after 40 years is one of the tournament’s great human stories. They are not winning games in this group.

Predicted standings: France → Norway → Senegal → Iraq

Third-place verdict: Senegal with three points, a win over Iraq, is a baseline. Four points from a draw against Norway or France would make them a very strong third-place qualifier. Their goal difference will be respectable. They sould make it out along with Norway and France.

Group J: Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan

The biggest individual storyline in world football sits right here. Group J features the defending champions dealing with a Lionel Messi question the whole sport is watching.

Along with an Algerian side armed with genuine attacking weapons, an Austrian team back after nearly 3 decades and Jordan making their first-ever World Cup appearance.

Argentina finish first. Messi has been dealing with a hamstring injury suffered at Inter Miami, but is expected to be fully fit for the opener against Algeria. The defending champions should be too strong for this group.

Austria finish second. Ralf Rangnick’s high-press system is built for tournament football. On the other side, Algeria carry real attacking threat, top-scoring in CAF qualifying with 10 goals. Austria offer structural rigour under Rangnick and the big-game experience of Alaba.

The decisive match between the two arrives late in the group. Our call is Austria, who are more consistent over three matches and better equipped to handle the physical demands of Rangnick’s system across a compressed schedule.

Algeria are a genuine dark horse. They are not simply making up the numbers. Mahrez is still capable of moments that change games. Amoura is electric and Ibrahim Maza is one of the rising stars to look out for. If Austria misfire in their opener, Algeria can sneak second place.

Jordan finish bottom but write history. Jordan will face off against reigning champions Argentina in the group stage, the greatest occasion in the nation’s football history. But, unfortunately, it looks impossible that they’ll get anything from any side in the World Cup.

Predicted standings: Argentina → Austria → Algeria → Jordan

Third-place verdict: Three points for a third-placed team is the bare minimum in this group. Given Algeria and Austria play late in the group, it could easily be even four, enough to secure qualification for both teams.

Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan

Ronaldo’s farewell is the narrative that consumes this group but Portugal do not need Ronaldo to win matches. But if he is fit, he starts. The whole world watches him one last time.

Portugal finish first. The Opta supercomputer gives Portugal a 59.0% chance of winning Group K and a 94.9% chance of reaching the last 32. Bruno Fernandes is the real star, giving them match-winning quality without depending on Ronaldo alone.

Colombia finish second. La Tricolor has a star in Luis Diaz who could lead them to the promised land a winger capable of competing with the best at these big tournaments. They could even make a case for first-place with their final group game being against Portugal.

DR Congo should get third. Yoane Wissa of Newcastle is a proven Premier League forward capable of scoring against any defensive line on a given day. Chancel Mbemba, the captain with 100-plus international caps, anchors the defence with experience.

Uzbekistan are debutants who qualified brilliantly. Captain Eldor Shomurodov scored five times and provided four assists in qualifying, making more contributions than any other Uzbek player. However, the step up in quality from AFC qualification to Portugal and Colombia is enormous.

Our call: DR Congo in third. Their physicality and Wissa’s individual quality gives them an edge over Uzbekistan in the battle for the third spot. A comfortable win in their head-to-head could be decisive in the cross-group rankings.

Predicted standings: Portugal → Colombia → DR Congo → Uzbekistan

Third-place verdict: DR Congo in third is a borderline case. A win over Uzbekistan is not a given, so they could miss out on qualification despite finishing third.

Group L: England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana

England arrive with their deepest, most complete squad in decades. They qualified with a perfect eight wins, conceding zero goals throughout the European campaign. Thomas Tuchel has a system, a core, and squad depth that few coaches can match.

England should finish first. Kane arrives off the back of an extraordinary Bayern Munich season. They arrive in North America with their best chance to win the World Cup in a generation. They win this group, and they should win it convincingly.

Croatia finish second. Luka Modric leads this Croatian side for one final major tournament. Croatia have a 76.9% chance of reaching the knockout phase per Opta: a far stronger probability than their group-stage opposition suggests on paper.

Ghana and Panama fight for third. Ghana will be missing Tottenham’s Mohammed Kudus through injury, but Antoine Semenyo is raring to go after a standout domestic season with both Bournemouth and Manchester City, accumulating 27 goal involvements across 48 fixtures.

Panama, meanwhile, are a genuinely improved side. Under Thomas Christiansen they have risen from 81st in the FIFA world rankings to 33rd during an incredible six-year journey. Their CONCACAF campaign was unbeaten.

Our call is Ghana in third. Their individual quality in attack, particularly Semenyo without Kudus, still outweighs Panama’s collective organisation when goals are needed. A win over Panama and a competitive showing against Croatia could even secure second.

Predicted standings: England → Croatia → Ghana → Panama

Third-place verdict: Ghana with three or four points is a credible third-place qualifier. Antoine Semenyo’s goals against Panama could be enough to edge the cross-group comparison.