England’s semi-final exit, Tuchel’s uncertain future & the Guardiola question that won’t go away

Last Updated on 17 July 2026

England reached their first World Cup semi-final since 2018. They led Argentina with 35 minutes to play. They then sat deep, surrendered momentum, conceded twice in the final five minutes and lost 2-1.

It is the most painful defeat in a generation for them, yet very similar to the heartbreak of 2018, and it has reignited every question about the direction of the national team, the identity under Thomas Tuchel, and whether a more fundamental change is required.

The Guardiola question, which has never fully gone away, is back, too, for England.

England’s familiar problem and pattern of international heartbreaks

Tuchel’s own assessment after the Argentina defeat was revealing: “We got too passive after we scored. We were close but couldn’t keep the level up.” That admission, from the manager himself, identifies the exact tactical problem that has defined England’s biggest losses.

They score, retreat, invite pressure, and concede. England had 11 touches in Argentina’s penalty area across the final 35 minutes of the match: compared to Argentina’s 31 in England’s box during the same period.

A team with so much quality should not spend the final third of a World Cup semi-final camped on the edge of their own box. The talent is not the problem, the instruction is. Tuchel’s contract runs until the 2028 Euros. The FA are unlikely to make an immediate change.

But the pressure to identify a long-term direction, one that uses England’s extraordinary depth of attacking talent, will intensify throughout the summer. And one name will continue to dominate the conversation above all others.

Guardiola, the verbal agreement and the window that could open

In 2024, Pep Guardiola had a verbal agreement to become England manager before ultimately choosing to extend his contract at Manchester City, as per Independent. With the City project coming to an end, Pep Guardiola is expected to venture into international management.

Guardiola has repeatedly said he would consider managing a national team at the end of his club career, specifically identifying it as a different and appealing challenge. The FA know it. Guardiola knows it. Whether the moment arrives now or later remains to be seen.

But the verbal agreement of 2024 did not expire. It simply went on hold. England’s semi-final exit, and the questions it raises about identity and ambition, make that conversation feel more urgent than at any point since.