Man City’s April record vs Arsenal’s title dream: Why Sunday’s clash is season-defining

Last Updated on 17 April 2026

There is a number that every Arsenal fan should know going into Sunday. Since Pep Guardiola arrived at the Etihad, Manchester City have won 20 of their last 22 Premier League games played in April.

Not over a full season, not across a cup run, in one calendar month, the most unforgiving stretch of the football year, Manchester City have been unbeatable. Arsenal lead the Premier League table on 70 points after 32 matches, with City six behind but holding a game in hand.

On paper, the Gunners are in control. In practice, they are heading into the one month that has historically been City’s private property, and the one fixture that could decide everything.

The unbelievable record that makes Manchester City dangerous every April

City’s April dominance is not statistical noise. Over the last six Premier League seasons, City’s April record reads 21 wins, two draws, and one defeat: 65 points from 24 matches, at a rate of 2.71 points per game and an 87.5% win rate.

They produced perfect Aprils in 2023 and 2024, and followed with a 4-1-0 record in 2025. The architecture of it is deliberate. Guardiola’s squads are built to peak late, rotating intelligently through winter congestion and arriving in spring with more in the tank than their rivals.

The contrast with Arsenal in the same period is striking. Arsenal’s April record over those same six seasons reads 11 wins, seven draws, and eight defeats. 40 points from 26 matches, at just 1.54 points per game.

For Mikel Arteta, April is his weakest month. There’s a clear drop in results compared to other months. This is not an accident of scheduling or fixture difficulty. It is a pattern, that has been central to several of Arsenal’s near-misses, and one that City know better than anyone.

What Sunday means for Arsenal and the title race

The mathematics of Sunday’s fixture at the Etihad are as clean as they are brutal. An Arsenal win would open a nine-point lead on City with just 18 possible points remaining for Guardiola’s side.

A draw keeps Arsenal in the driving seat but gives City the lifeline of their game in hand. A City win would leave just three points between the sides, with both teams able to reach a maximum of 85 points.

As per Sky Sports, Declan Rice has called it the “ultimate test”. He described winning as a chance to make a “massive statement”. The tone from the Arsenal camp is right, but the occasion demands more than words.

This is a club that has finished second three consecutive seasons. Each time with a different explanation and the same result. City, meanwhile, arrive having already beaten Arsenal at Wembley in the Carabao Cup final last month, with their April machine already turning.