Arsenal
Champions League permutations: What each Premier League club needs to do on the final gameweek
Last Updated on 29 January 2026
The final matchday of the league phase in the UEFA Champions League promises tension for Premier League sides, with qualification places still very much up for grabs.
Six English clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United, and Tottenham Hotspur, head into the last round knowing their European fate will be decided on Tuesday night.
Under the new Champions League format, the top eight teams at the end of the league phase progress directly to the round of 16. Clubs finishing ninth to 24th must navigate a knockout phase play-off, while those placed 25th to 36th are eliminated.
Here’s how each Premier League side stands ahead of the final fixtures.
Arsenal: top spot secured, home advantage guaranteed
Current position: 1st (21 points, goal difference +18)
Final fixture: Kairat Almaty (Emirates Stadium)
Arsenal’s job is already done. The Gunners are the only side with a perfect record, winning all seven league-phase matches to sit comfortably at the summit.
Crucially, they are guaranteed to finish in the top two, regardless of the final result. That ensures home advantage in the second leg of every knockout tie up until the final itself.
Only Bayern Munich could mathematically challenge them, but Arsenal losing to Kairat seems impossible, to say the least.
Tottenham Hotspur: one step from skipping the play-offs
Current position: 5th (14 points, goal difference +8)
Final fixture: Eintract Frankfurt (Stadium Deutsche Bank Park)
Tottenham’s slender one-point cushion over a congested chasing pack could prove decisive.
Victory away at already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt would guarantee Spurs a top-eight finish and allow them to bypass the knockout phase play-offs altogether. With Frankfurt having nothing left to play for, Spurs will see this as a golden opportunity.
A draw could also suffice, but only if results elsewhere fall in their favour.
Liverpool: win and relax, slip and sweat
Current position: 4th (15 points, goal difference +6)
Final fixture: Qarabag (Anfield)
Liverpool’s convincing win over Marseille last time out lifted them into fourth, level on points with Real Madrid and firmly in control of their destiny.
A home victory against Qarabag would lock in a top-four finish and guarantee safe passage straight to the round of 16.
On the other hand, a draw may still be enough to stay inside the top eight. However, that outcome would depend on results elsewhere. Defeat, although, would leave Liverpool entirely reliant on other teams slipping up.
Newcastle United: toughest test of the bunch
Current position: 7th (13 points, goal difference +10)
Final fixture: Paris Saint-Germain (Parc des Princes)
Newcastle find themselves part of a tightly packed group on 13 points alongside Chelsea and Manchester City.
Their task is simple in theory but difficult in practice. They have to match or better the results of their direct rivals and hope their healthy goal difference keeps them inside the top eight.
The challenge is steep, with a trip to reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain. However, the Magpies can draw confidence from recent history, they were unbeaten against PSG in the 2023/24 group stage, winning one match and drawing the other.
Chelsea: margins are everything
Current position: 8th (13 points, goal difference +6)
Final fixture: Napoli (Diego Armando Maradona Stadium)
Chelsea’s situation mirrors Newcastle’s, though with a less forgiving goal difference.
After edging past Pafos in their last outing, the Blues now travel to Napoli, the reigning Italian champions, who themselves need at least a point to avoid elimination.
If teams finish level on points, UEFA’s tie-breakers will come into play: goal difference, goals scored, away goals, wins, and away wins. That leaves Chelsea walking a fine line, where even a positive result may not be enough without help elsewhere.
Manchester City: win big or risk the play-offs
Current position: 11th (13 points, goal difference +4)
Final fixture: Galatasaray (RAMS Park)
Manchester City’s shock defeat at Bodo/Glimt has left them dangerously exposed going into the final round.
They host a Galatasaray side who have already beaten Liverpool this season and sit comfortably in mid-table. With one of the weakest goal differences among the teams on 13 points, Pep Guardiola’s side may need a convincing win to force their way into the top eight.
A draw could easily leave City stranded outside the automatic qualification spots, and facing an unwanted knockout phase play-off.
